Regression to the Mean in the NFL

I know this post is going to ruffle some feathers at Cosby Sweaters, but hey, you can’t live in fear, right?  I gotta stand by what I believe.

This is true of all sports (baseball in particular), but because the NFL is starting up now I’m using that as an example.  Just because a player had a great season last year, that doesn’t mean he will again this year.  It’s more likely that a random player X will put up numbers similar to his other previous seasons, rather than his one outstanding season.  DeAngelo Williams is a good example.  In 2008 he came out of nowhere with a ridiculous break out season, and the following year he went near the top of everybody’s fantasy drafts.  He was fairly disappointing in ’09, then last year he flat out stunk.

I know I have said before that pre-season games are meaningless, but Michael Vick was bad the other night.  I mean really bad.  And even though I don’t think you can read much into that, I do think it’s a good bet that in 2011 he’ll more likely resemble the Mike Vick of old than the guy who was an MVP candidate last year.  It’s a little something called “regression to the mean.”  The second Philly signed Vince Young I told an Eagles fan friend of mine that I bet at some point he starts instead of Vick, and I’m sticking to that.