There are seven NFL teams in which DraftKings Sportsbook currently gives a 16/1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl, and the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives at least a 7% chance to win the title.
Using that criteria, let’s rank the Super Bowl LIX title contenders entering Week 18.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5; Previously: 6th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1600
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.2%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
While the Packers place seventh on our list, they’re more than capable of beating any team, anywhere. The metrics think that Green Bay is a top-five team in reality.
The Packers’ only losses this season are vs the Detroit Lions (twice), the Minnesota Vikings (twice), and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Unfortunately for the Packers, the path to the Super Bowl is likely to get quite challenging right when the playoffs start. Unless the Dallas Cowboys can upset the Washington Commanders in Week 18, Green Bay will have to go to Philadelphia to play the Eagles in the NFC Wild-Card Round.
6. Minnesota Vikings (14-2: Previously: 7th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +850
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 7.7%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 7th
The Vikings continue to amaze as the NFL’s most surprising team this season. Minnesota put together another impressive victory in Week 17, taking down the Green Bay Packers.
Next, the Vikings get to play for the No. 1 seed. Minnesota will face the Lions in Detroit on Sunday Night Football in Week 18, with the winner taking the NFC North crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. With a victory, the Vikings would make a definitive statement that they’re very much for real, and the NFC path to the Super Bowl would go through Minnesota.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3; Previously: 5th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +650
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.4%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
The status of quarterback Jalen Hurts (concussion protocol) remains up in the air, and we at least know that he’s been ruled out for Week 18.
With Hurts healthy and on his game, the Eagles are as good as any team in football. But if Kenny Pickett has to start in the NFC Wild-Card Round (likely vs the Packers), Philadelphia’s chances take a big hit.
4. Baltimore Ravens (11-5; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +650
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 13.2%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
A 31-2 road win over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day. That was eye-opening.
The metrics have liked the Ravens all along, and now the eye test and results are matching it.
Lamar Jackson has been incredible, with 39 touchdown passes, four interceptions, an NFL-best 121.8 passer rating, 852 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns.
3. Detroit Lions (14-2; Previously: 2nd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +425
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 20.7%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
The Lions looked vulnerable in the first half vs the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, and then the offense took things to a new level with a dominant 27-point second half in a 40-34 victory.
Sustaining success throughout the postseason will be a tough challenge for the banged-up Lions, but their offense — coordinated by top head-coaching candidate Ben Johnson — is so good that they might be able to overcome the injuries.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +650
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.5%
FPI Ranking: 4th
Total DVOA Ranking: 3rd
Josh Allen enters Week 18 as the NFL MVP favorite, but he’s much more concerned about the Bills taking the next step in January.
If not now, when for the Bills?
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +340
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 14.3%
FPI Ranking: 20th (A 14-place drop after a blowout win over the Steelers? That feels like an error.)
Total DVOA Ranking: 6th
Right when everyone starts to doubt the Chiefs, they step it up when it matters. That’s why they’re two-time defending champions.
After winning in close games for weeks, Kansas City stomped the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 29-10 road victory on Christmas Day. Patrick Mahomes — who has been battling a high-ankle sprain — put together one of his best games of the season, throwing for 320 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, while completing 76.3% of his passes and putting together a 127.1 passer rating.
Kansas City has secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so the Bills, Ravens, and the rest of the AFC field would have to take the Chiefs down on the road at Arrowhead Stadium.
