There are eight NFL teams that DraftKings Sportsbook currently gives a 30/1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl and that the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives at least a 3% chance to win the title.
Using that criteria, let’s rank the Super Bowl LIX title contenders entering Week 16.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6; Previously: NR)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +3000
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 3.3%
FPI Ranking: 7th
Total DVOA Ranking: 14th
The Buccaneers have largely been an afterthought in the contention mix (even just in terms of making some noise in January), but maybe they shouldn’t be?
After all, the Buccaneers won a road game over the Detroit Lions this season, and they blew out the Philadelphia Eagles at home. So, they have convincing wins over the two NFC favorites. And in Week 15, they annihilated the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 on the road.
This is a team that can beat anybody, anywhere. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen — who will be a hot name in the NFL head-coaching cycle in the coming weeks — has the Tampa Bay offense humming.
7. Minnesota Vikings (12-2: Previously: 7th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1300
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 7.1%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 6th
While the Vikings come in at seventh in our list, the gap between them and the teams ahead on this list isn’t large- *if* Sam Darnold can keep playing quarterback like his season numbers suggest (his 104.9 passer rating ranks fourth in the NFL).
A 12-2 record is a 12-2 record, and this team is good on both sides of the ball, led by an excellent offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell and a terrific defensive coordinator in Brian Flores.
Seeding could be a big part of the title chances for the Vikings, and they now have the same record as the Lions and Eagles. The No. 1 seed is still very much in play.
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4; Previously: 6th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1300
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.4%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 3rd
The Packers are very capable of winning this thing. Their game travels, as shown most recently with a 30-13 blowout road win over the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday night.
While the Packers have four losses and currently would be the NFC’s No. 6 seed, the metrics think this team ranks up there with anybody in reality. Green Bay is one of only two teams to be ranked in the top three of each the FPI and Total DVOA.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +550
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.7%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 7th
The Chiefs have the NFL’s best record while ranking 11th in point differential (+70). Even for a two-time defending champion, that would feel concerningly unsustainable.
And that’s before you factor in Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high-ankle sprain.
It’s hard to ever bet against the Chiefs, but they need to look better to the eye test in the coming weeks to be viewed as one of the top championship contenders. Locking up the AFC’s No. 1 seed would greatly help their title path, though.
4. Baltimore Ravens (9-5; Previously: 5th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +850
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 10.2%
FPI Ranking: 4th
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
If you’re a big believer in DVOA, the Ravens having +850 title odds while ranking first in DVOA would make for a pretty appealing bet.
3. Detroit Lions (12-2; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 20.4%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
The Lions’ injuries are officially a big concern, particularly on the defensive side of the ball- and the Buffalo Bills took advantage of that in a 48-42 road win in Week 15. Detroit now has several key players on injured reserve, led by superstar defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (the hope is that he could maybe return for the Super Bowl if the Lions make it there). And running back David Montgomery is dealing with a knee injury that has his season in doubt.
The computers and metrics still love the Lions, but the loss in roster talent (due to the injuries) is difficult to overcome.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.4%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
Philadelphia is rolling with 10 straight wins after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers (a 10-4 team) by 14 points in Week 15.
If the Eagles can take down the Commanders on the road in Week 16 (Philadelphia is a 3.5-point favorite), they’ll likely win out. They host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 and the New York Giants in Week 18. Additionally, the Lions and Vikings still play each other, so at least one of them is losing a game there.
The No. 1 seed is a very realistic possibility for the Eagles, and the road to the Super Bowl going through Philadelphia would pose a difficult challenge for the rest of the NFC.
1. Buffalo Bills (11-3; Previously: 2nd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +425
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 15.5%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
With the Chiefs looking increasingly vulnerable, the Bills have firmly become the team to beat in the AFC. Buffalo’s 48-42 win over the Lions in Detroit showed off a buzzsaw offense led by NFL MVP favorite Josh Allen.
If there’s a concern for the Bills, it’s certainly the defense, with 86 total points allowed over the last two games. The good news is that the offense is usually able to make up for the defensive concerns, but it can be difficult to win that way consistently in January and February.
