There are eight teams still alive in the NFL Playoffs as we enter the Divisional Round.
Let’s rank those eight teams as Super Bowl LIX contenders.
8. Houston Texans (11-7; Previously: NR)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +5500
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 3.7%
FPI Ranking: 16th
Total DVOA Ranking: 16th
Playoff Seed: No. 4 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +8.5 at Chiefs; +340
After looking unimpressive for nearly three months, the Texans pulled off an upset victory in emphatic fashion — 32-12 — over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild-Card Round.
Houston had Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert under duress all game, leading to four sacks, four interceptions (Herbert had just three interceptions over 17 regular-season games!), and a 40.9 passer rating allowed.
So, if the Texans can keep playing defense like that, and C.J. Stroud can play well at quarterback, they’ll be a tough out. But now they go on the road to face the two-time defending champions, so that will be quite the challenge.
7. Washington Commanders (13-5; Previously: NR)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +2800
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 4.8%
FPI Ranking: 10th
Total DVOA Ranking: 10th
Playoff Seed: No. 6 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +9.5 at Lions; +370
Will the magic run out for the Commanders in this incredible season? Washington doinked in a field goal to walk it off on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild-Card Round.
If the Commanders can win as huge underdogs at the Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Round, maybe they really are a team of destiny.
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-7; Previously: NR)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +2000
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 4.7%
FPI Ranking: 11th
Total DVOA Ranking: 17th
Playoff Seed: No. 4 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +6 at Eagles; +225
The Rams made it an absolute nightmare on Monday night for Sam Darnold, tying an NFL playoff record with nine sacks.
The combo of that defense and the brilliance of head coach Sean McVay on the offensive side of the ball will keep the Rams a threat. And the Rams have championship experience, with McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford leading Los Angeles to a title in Super Bowl LVI.
5. Baltimore Ravens (13-5; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 18.0%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
Playoff Seed: No. 3 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -1.5 at Bills; -118
Now we get to the territory where ranking these teams isn’t far off from picking names out of a hat; they’re all *really* good and extremely close.
The Ravens are a buzzsaw right now and look as good as anybody, both to the eye test and metrics-wise. It’s why they’re slight favorites on the road against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round.
4. Buffalo Bills (14-4; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +550
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 16.1%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +1.5 vs Ravens; -102
The only reason I have the Bills over the Ravens is because I’m picking the Bills to win that matchup while acknowledging that it’s essentially a toss-up. It could end up being the best game of the entire postseason.
The Bills took advantage of a home game in the AFC Wild-Card Round, stomping the Broncos 31-7. Bills Mafia is sure to be out in full force for the home game vs the Ravens.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (15-3; Previously: 5th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +400
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 14.6%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -6 vs Rams; -278
The Eagles took care of business with a 22-10 win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild-Card Round, and now they have a more favorable matchup against the Rams.
An Eagles-Lions NFC Championship Game has lined up for a long while now, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise as we enter the Divisional Round.
2. Detroit Lions (15-2; Previously: 2nd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +275
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 26.7%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
Playoff Seed: No. 1 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -9.5 vs Commanders; -485
The Super Bowl title favorites, and deservedly so after leading the NFL in points per game (33.2) and point differential (+222) during the regular season.
After getting a bye in the first round, Detroit is nearly a double-digit favorite in the Divisional Round against the Commanders (rather than facing a Buccaneers team that beat the Lions in Week 2). The Super Bowl path is shaping up nicely for the Lions so far.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +350
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.4%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 8th
Playoff Seed: No. 1 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -8.5 vs Texans; -440
The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City.
Until a team goes into Arrowhead and takes down Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending champions, the Chiefs will maintain this top spot on our rankings.