We’ll take a look at the betting odds — via DraftKings Sportsbook — for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs and mix in our analysis.
Saturday, January 18
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs; 4:30, ABC/ESPN
Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -440, Texans +340
Over/Under: 41.5
These teams met at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16, with the Chiefs coming away victorious, 27-19. A week later, the Texans were demolished 31-2 by the Ravens in Houston. The Texans entered their AFC Wild-Card Round game against the Los Angeles Chargers as home underdogs and then proceeded to blow out the Chargers, 32-12.
It’s been hard to get a good read on this Texans team, but their upside in a given week is undeniable with a strong defense and the talents of quarterback C.J. Stroud (who’s had a rollercoaster sophomore campaign). In the win over the Chargers, Houston’s defense picked off Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert four times (he threw just three total interceptions in the regular season) and brought constant pressure, sacking him four times.
The Chiefs are the AFC’s No. 1 seed and are two-time defending champions, but they haven’t exactly been dominant this season. 11 of Kansas City’s 15 wins came by eight points or fewer, which is certainly notable when seeing this 8.5-point spread.
The 41.5 over/under is the lowest in the Divisional Round.
The Pick: Texans +8.5; Chiefs -440
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions; 8, Fox
Point Spread: Lions -9.5
Moneyline: Lions -485, Commanders +370
Over/Under: 55.5
The Commanders keep finding ways to win games in crazy ways, most recently by doinking in a field goal to walk it off for an upset road victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild-Card Round. It would seem unsustainable to keep winning games the way Washington has, but it keeps happening, and we’re now in mid-January.
Detroit is the Super Bowl LIX title favorite (+275) and secured the NFC’s No. 1 seed with an eye-opening 31-9 beatdown of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18.
It’s hard to imagine the Lions having their Super Bowl dreams crushed in their first playoff game of the year, especially as near double-digit favorites. But it’s also hard to count out the Commanders in what’s been a magical season for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and Washington.
The 55.5 over/under is easily the highest of the Divisional Round.
The Pick: Commanders +9.5; Lions -485
Sunday, January 19
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles; 3, NBC
Point Spread: Eagles -6
Moneyline: Eagles -278, Rams +225
Over/Under: 43.5
The Rams played a “home” game vs the Vikings in Arizona for the NFC Wild-Card Round after the Los Angeles wildfires forced the NFL to move the game. Los Angeles entered the game as 2.5-point underdogs and went on to smash the Vikings, 27-9. The Rams made it a miserable night for quarterback Sam Darnold, tying an NFL playoff record with nine sacks.
That defense, coupled with an offense led by head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford (who won Super Bowl LVI together for Los Angeles), makes the Rams a dangerous team.
Will it be enough to take down the Eagles? That will be an uphill battle.
Philadelphia is excellent on both sides of the ball, especially at home. And even if the Rams’ pass rush is on point again, there’s still the issue of having to stop running back Saquon Barkley, who ran for a ridiculous 2,005 yards in the regular season.
The Pick: Eagles-6
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills; 6:30, CBS
Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
Moneyline: Ravens -115, Bills -105
Over/Under: 51.5
It seems too early in the playoffs to have a matchup this good. Two teams that are each very capable of winning Super Bowl LIX, and two quarterbacks that are each deserving of the NFL MVP award in Josh Allen (the heavy favorite) and Lamar Jackson (a two-time winner of the award).
Buffalo blew out the Denver Broncos 31-7 in the AFC Wild-Card Round, while the Ravens took care of business with a 28-14 home win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The betting odds have this game as a near toss-up, and that feels right. It’s one of those games where you’d certainly rather be the home team and get any boost you can.
The Pick: Bills -105