Preseason predictions is one of the most foolish and pointless exercises in sports, but that doesn’t stop fans from obsessing and gloating over them, as if they’ve already won the World Series in March. It’s nearly impossible to accurately tab breakout stars, unforeseen busts and resurrected veterans, with all predictions relying on a heavy dose of stupidly uneducated luck.
As baseball takes a breather with the All-Star break, let’s revisit some of those hilariously inaccurate preseason player and team predictions. This is not a public embarrassment of one’s botched predictions but instead a reminder that not one single person has a clue what will happen every baseball season.
Photo Courtesy: Jim Mone/AP
Alex Rodriguez
No one knew what to expect from A-Rod in 2015 after the highly controversial slugger missed all of 2014. Projections were relatively conservative, with most predicting he’d be a serviceable player for Joe Giradi and provide adequate punch. However, Jesse Spector (Sporting News) offered one of the most amusingly inaccurate predictions.
Expecting him to play 162 games would be idiotic. He’ll play a little short of 100 and put up a .713 OPS with 18 home runs.
Rodriguez has already hit 18 home runs and played in 82 of New York’s 88 games. His OPS has hovered around .900 all year and currently sits at .898.
Photo Courtesy: USATSI
Minnesota Twins
Almost no one picked the Twins to flirt with a .500 record this season, with even the most optimistic homers shooting for an 80-82-win season. Mike Axisa (CBS Sports) was one of many that was semi-rooting for Minnesota to return to relevance but said there’s no shot it’ll happen in 2015 and probably not even in 2016.
I hope the team can get him to the postseason again. It certainly won’t happen in 2015 and probably not 2016 either. Minnesota looks like a lock for the AL Central cellar this year.
They currently have the AL’s second-best record and their highest pre-All-Star break win total in seven years as they sit in the AL’s top Wild Card spot.
Photo Courtesy: USATSI
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners acquired Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins prior to the 2010 season and the duo was suppose to help them end a long playoff drought. They were pegged as legit title contenders before falling flat on their face.
That same Kool-Aid was flowing again during the 2014-15 offseason after Seattle barely missed the playoffs last fall. The ambitious predictions starting falling from everywhere, including from Jeff Sullivan (FOX Sports), who spit out this beauty of a headline over the winter…before they signed Nelson Cruz, the one man keeping their offense from reaching historically embarrassing marks:
Why the Mariners Might be the Best Team in the AL Right Now
They are comfortably headed toward another non-playoff season, sitting seven games under .500 at 41-48 and seven games out of the second AL Wild Card spot.
Photo Courtesy: Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Wade Davis
The Royals captured the hearts of nostalgic baseball fans with their miraculous World Series run last fall. However, love for KC in 2015 was across the board, with some predicting a 95-win campaign and others believing their pitching and offense could replicate their postseason magic for an entire six-month season, saying they’d be lucky to reach 80 wins.
Last winter, Rob Neyer (FOX Sports) argued that the Royals needed to make serious changes over the remainder of the offseason, specifically saying bullpen arms Wade Davis and Greg Holland could never replicate their 2014 success in 2015 and should be dumped while their value is still high.
Considering the Royals’ annual ability to turn crummy starters into great relievers – and all appropriate kudos to the front office and the field staff for that feat – there’s just no reason to consider Davis and Holland, whose values will never be higher than right now, untouchable. If you can get Adam Lind for Marco Estrada – as the Brewers just did – can’t you get some other lefty slugger, as good as Lind or maybe even better, for Greg Holland or Wade Davis?
Neyer was relatively accurate on Holland, as the closer’s ERA has nearly doubled to 2.70 this season, but was WAY off on Davis. Until Davis yielded one run in Sunday’s 11-1o win over Toronto, the former starter had given up exactly one run over the first three months of the season. He still boasts a microscopic 0.46 ERA over 39 appearances.
Photo Courtesy: John Sleezer/Kansas City Star
