1) Chances Going Forward
Look, if you’re hoping for the U.S. and Germany to just go easy on each other and walk away with tie — both teams would advance if that were to happen — you’re going to be letdown. But, cheer up. Nate Silver and 538 give the U.S. a 76% chance at advancing to the next round.
So what needs to happen for the U.S. to advance?
Let’s keep it simple: if the U.S. wins or ties against Germany, it’ll be through to the next round. If it loses, the U.S. will be rooting for a Portugal/Ghana tie, in which it would still advance. The next best scenario if the U.S. loses is a Portugal win. Because Portugal’s goal differential is shit, the U.S. would probably advance via the tiebreaker. Ghana’s goal differential, on the other hand, isn’t as bad as Portugal. If it was to win, and the U.S. was to lose, there’s a very real chance that Ghana would advance over the U.S. Especially if Germany can down the U.S. by a few goals.
Still, despite the tie to Portugal, fans have to be encouraged by how well the U.S. played on Sunday. If not for a few key mistakes — Cameron’s failed clearance, Bradley’s missed goal, and Bradley’s turnover — that disgusting chart above wouldn’t even exist.
[genericon icon=twitter] Follow Sean Wagner-McGough on Twitter @seanjwagner
