The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0 and in search of a three-peat (and what would be their fourth title in the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era). They’re the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL entering Week 9 of the 2024 season.
The Chiefs have taken down the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, and Las Vegas Raiders. Five of those wins have been by one score, including Sunday’s 27-20 victory over a bad Raiders team in Las Vegas. Otherwise, they beat the 49ers by 10 in Santa Clara and beat the Saints by 13 in Kansas City.
So, the Chiefs haven’t exactly been dominant in these wins and have looked vulnerable at times. They rank fourth in Total DVOA and fourth in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Mahomes has thrown eight touchdown passes and a league-leading nine interceptions, to go with an 84.9 passer rating, the worst mark of his career.
But the Chiefs are still undefeated through seven games, they’re still back-to-back champions and the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, and Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes regardless of what his current season numbers say.
When will Kansas finally suffer a loss in the 2024 season? We’ll take a look at the Chiefs’ upcoming games and predict when a loss will come.
Week 9: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (MNF)
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -8.5; -470
FPI odds of a Chiefs win: 64.9%
Going into Kansas City on Monday Night Football, while already being down star wide receivers Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring injury), will be a highly difficult challenge for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
Verdict: Win
Week 10: vs Denver Broncos
Betting line via DraftKings: Chiefs -9.5; -455
FPI odds of a Chiefs win: 74.2%
The Broncos are one of the NFL’s most surprising teams at 5-3, but their schedule has also helped, as the last two weeks showed with a win over Spencer Rattler and the New Orleans Saints and a home win over Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. The FPI is still very skeptical of the Broncos, ranking Denver 27th.
It’s just hard to picture Bo Nix and company outdueling Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Verdict: Win
Week 11: at Buffalo Bills
FPI odds of a Chiefs win: 46.9%
This is the only game on their entire schedule where the Chiefs would currently be viewed as underdogs.
The 6-2 Bills rank third in the FPI and fifth in DVOA. Josh Allen has been sensational, throwing for 14 touchdown passes and just one interception, while adding three touchdowns on the ground.
Buffalo is desperate to take the next step and has an opportunity to make a statement with a win over the Chiefs- before a potential rematch in the AFC playoffs.
Verdict: LOSS
If the Chiefs make it through Week 11 unbeaten, and if Mahomes stays healthy, the hopes of a 17-0 season become realistic.
While no games are cupcakes in the NFL, matchups vs the Carolina Panthers (Week 12) and Raiders (Week 13 in Kansas City) are extremely favorable for the Chiefs.
The final five games are very losable, and odds are they stumble at least once, but the Chiefs would still be favored in any of the matchups at the moment: at the Cleveland Browns, vs the Houston Texans, at the Pittsburgh Steelers, and vs the Broncos. If the Chiefs make it to Week 18 with no losses, chances are they would prioritize making history and taking their legacy to new heights over resting players vs the Broncos.
The remainder of the Chiefs’ schedule:
Week 12: at Carolina Panthers (FPI: Chiefs 79.9%)
Week 13: vs Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday (FPI: Chiefs 77.0%)
Week 14: vs Los Angeles Chargers on SNF (FPI: Chiefs 68.5%)
Week 15: at Cleveland Browns (FPI: 61.0%)
Week 16: vs Houston Texans (FPI: 64.3%)
Week 17: at Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day (FPI: Chiefs 57.2%)
Week 18: vs Denver Broncos: (FPI: 67.9%)
