We’re down to four teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs as we approach Championship Sunday.
Let’s rank those four teams as Super Bowl LIX title contenders.
4. Washington Commanders (14-5; Previously: 7th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +800
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 14.7%
FPI Ranking: 10th
Total DVOA Ranking: 10th
Playoff Seed: No. 6 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +6 at Eagles; +230
The Commanders continue to amaze, and they keep taking it to new levels. Washington went on the road and stunned the Lions — the NFC’s No. 1 seed — 45-31 in Detroit.
Jayden Daniels has put together a remarkable rookie season and has this offense humming. While the Commanders are 6-point road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game, nobody should be surprised if they get it done again. Winning by two touchdowns in Detroit shows that Washington can beat any team, anywhere.
3. Buffalo Bills (15-4; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +260
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 31.1%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: +1.5 at Chiefs; +105
Buffalo took down the Baltimore Ravens 27-25 in an AFC Divisional Round game that felt more like an AFC Championship showdown. Josh Allen and the Bills held off two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in the Ravens in a wild game.
Now, the Bills have to face the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that has knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs in three of the past five seasons. This feels like as good of a chance as any for Allen and the Bills to finally get past the Chiefs, but we need to see it to believe it.
If this game were at Highmark Stadium, the Bills would be favored. But winning at Arrowhead Stadium in January has proven to be the toughest road challenge in the NFL in the Patrick Mahomes era.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (16-2; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +220
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 22.0%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 8th
Playoff Seed: No. 1 in AFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -1.5 vs Bills; -125
The Chiefs have felt vulnerable all season, and here they are hosting the AFC Championship Game as two-time defending champions.
In an AFC Divisional Round win, Kansas City’s held the Houston Texans to 14 points and sacked quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +180
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 32.2%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in NFC
Betting Line per DraftKings: -6 vs Commanders; -285
A new team comes in at the top of our rankings, and it’s largely due to path.
Philadelphia is a six-point home favorite over the Commanders, while the Bills-Chiefs game is close to a toss-up. So, on paper, the Eagles easily have the best chance of the four remaining teams to reach the Super Bowl, which is half the battle.
The Eagles held off the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the NFC Divisional Round, but quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a knee injury that has his NFC Championship Game status and effectiveness in question.
Either way, Philadelphia will certainly lean on star running back Saquon Barkley to be a huge factor. After running for a ridiculous 2,005 yards in the regular season, Barkley got loose for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Rams.