Arch Manning will be eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft and is already widely considered one of the top prospects by some analysts. But it sounds like his NFL dreams might have to wait a little bit longer.
NFL teams are no longer focused on developing young quarterbacks over time. Instead, they’re looking for quarterbacks who can step in and perform right away. According to a report from NFL Draft expert Matt Miller, this has NFL scouts and agents suggesting that quarterbacks shouldn’t even try to enter the draft until they’ve started for two seasons or more at the college level.
“Scouts and agents are telling college QBs to not leave school until they’ve started 2+ years. The NFL doesn’t truly develop QBs anymore outside of rare exceptions,” Miller said in a post on X, the social media website formerly known as Twitter.
This is some pretty devastating news Manning, who will be eligible for the draft next season but hasn’t even started one full season as Texas’ starting quarterback yet.
If he were to follow this advice, Manning would not be ready to enter the NFL Draft until 2027 – more than two years.
On one hand, Manning could be one of the “rare exceptions” that Miller brought up. But on the other hand, the NFL simply has not been friendly to young quarterbacks in recent years.
With other top quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young struggling early in their careers, Lior Lampert of Fansided believes that Manning may decide to stay in school rather than make the jump to the NFL right away.
“Knowing the quarterback rookie-scale contract window is a time to maximize a franchise’s Super Bowl efforts in today’s league, the margin for error is slim. Because of this, organizations like the Colts (and Panthers) take drastic measures, ostensibly cutting their losses prematurely,” Lampert noted before adding, “With that in mind and time on his side, Manning can reconsider what path he wants to take.
“As many expected, the beginning of Richardson’s NFL career has been turbulent, with more valleys than peaks. Not only was he never considered a finished product throughout the draft evaluation process, but his status as a raw albeit tantalizing prospect was widely known. Thus far, it’s panned out that way to a tee. Yet, rather than letting him experience the growing pains, the Colts are pivoting to Flacco. Someone in Manning’s camp is surely keeping tabs on this and thinking about how it may impact his impending future.”
Of course, Manning could still choose to enter the NFL Draft anyway and ignore this warning from scouts and agents, but the track record for young quarterbacks in the NFL simply has not been great in recent years.
We’ll have to see what he chooses to do.
