The 2024 NFL regular season is nearing its end, and the playoffs are right around the corner. While the playoff picture is still sorting itself out, the –realistic — championship contenders are separating themselves from the rest of the pack.
There are seven NFL teams in which DraftKings Sportsbook currently gives a 12/1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl, and the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives at least a 6% chance to win the title.
Using that criteria, let’s rank the Super Bowl LIX title contenders entering Week 17.
7. Minnesota Vikings (13-2: Previously: 7th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1000
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 6.5%
FPI Ranking: 7th
Total DVOA Ranking: 6th
The Vikings continue to impress on both sides of the ball, and they have a very real chance to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, with that potentially coming down to a Week 18 showdown against the Detroit Lions.
The NFC going through Minnesota would be a big boost to the Vikings’ title chances.
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4; Previously: 6th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1200
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 9.8%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 3rd
The Philadelphia Eagles may get the “pleasure” as the NFC’s No. 2 seed of hosting the Packers in the NFC Wild-Card round. That’s not a fun reward.
The Packers are playing as well as any team in the league right now, with their most recent victory being a 34-0 win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. They’d be higher on this list if not for seeding and path. However, they’re shown that their game travels; their only road loss of the season was by three points at Detroit.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3; Previously: 2nd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +600
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.9%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
The Eagles’ path to a title got more difficult in a hurry.
Philadelphia’s chances to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC became slim after blowing a double-digit lead at the Washington Commanders on Sunday.
Additionally, the Eagles lost starting quarterback Jalen Hurts to a concussion in the first quarter of that game (which certainly contributed to losing the game). Hurts was replaced in the game by Kenny Pickett (and Pickett is now dealing with a rib injury).
The Eagles will host a game in the playoffs and may be the NFC’s best team when healthy, but now the status of Hurts is in question.
4. Baltimore Ravens (10-5; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +800
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.4%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
The Ravens continue to be a metrics darling, and combine that with the elite quarterback play of Lamar Jackson — 37 passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, four interceptions, and an NFL-best 120.6 passer rating — and this is a very dangerous team.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1; Previously: 5th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +400
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 12.2%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 7th
Battling a high-ankle sprain, Patrick Mahomes still looked very good and led the Chiefs to a 27-19 win over the Houston Texans in Week 16.
The Chiefs are one win away from securing the No. 1 seed and forcing the AFC path to the Super Bowl to go through Kansas City.
2. Detroit Lions (13-2; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +400
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 23.1%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
Can Detroit overcome so many injuries to key players?
How the Lions look vs the San Francisco 49ers on the road in primetime (MNF) in Week 17, followed by vs the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18, will tell us a lot about this team heading into the postseason.
1. Buffalo Bills (12-3; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +500
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 13.3%
FPI Ranking: 4th
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
The Bills were not impressive in Week 16, barely getting past a three-win New England Patriots team at home. But they’ve still won nine of their last 10 games, so we’ll give them a pass for the most recent effort that still resulted in a win.
Now, if it doesn’t look much better vs the New York Jets in Week 17 and in a Patriots rematch in Week 18 (if the Bills aren’t resting players, of course), that would be cause for concern.
