In case you missed it, the Swaggy P Show Los Angeles Lakers won their second game in a row Wednesday night, improving to 3-9 on the season and officially bumping the Oklahoma City Thunder (3-10) to the cellar of the Western Conference. The half-game difference came courtesy of the Thunder dropping a winnable road game against the suddenly feisty Denver Nuggets, who have also won two in a row after looking like an utter disaster the first two weeks of the season. Also, while it doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, the Thunder are now tied for the second-worst record in the NBA, thanks to the Philadelphia 76ers being the Philadelphia 76ers.
It’s a position the Thunder haven’t been in since the year they assumed their new identity. Here are the Thunder records since their last sub-.500 season (aka, their first year in Oklahoma): 50-32, 55-27, 47-19 (lockout season), 60-22, 59-23. Basically, 3-10 is practically unheard of in Thunder Land. Of course, the reason for this is injuries. And more injuries. And, even more injuries. Kevin Durant went down before the season started, Russell Westbrook followed suit just two games into the season, and other players have missed time due to various bumps and bruises. Thanks to all that, the Thunder have sometimes suited up only eight players, and were granted a waiver to sign Ish Smith — barely an NBA player — as a backup guard.
Pretty bad, huh?
The good news (if you can call it that) was that the Thunder’s schedule appeared to be quite favorable during the time they’d be without Durant. It was assumed Westbrook could keep them afloat against the dregs of the Eastern Conference and some divisional cupcakes. If they could just hover around .500 until early to mid-December, they’d be okay. Well, it turns out it’s really friggin’ hard to win when your two All-World talents are sitting on the bench in trendy suits, while every other team is just licking their chops over kicking a nine-man team while it’s down.
Their last six games have gone like this: Loss at Milwaukee (a blowout), blowout win at Boston, loss to Detroit (a really bad overtime loss at home), loss to Houston (the horrific 69-65 game), losses at Utah and Denver (two division opponents with a combined record of 9-14). With Westbrook and Durant out until at least a week or two into December, the Thunder really can’t afford to go another stretch of 1-5. Why? Because the Western Conference is really good, and the Northwest Division actually has one legitimately formidable opponent: Portland.
Westbrook and Durant are both practicing now (or, at least shooting basketballs on a basketball court), but there’s no indication that either will be back in action before the reported early to mid-December return date. Just for shits, let’s peg a return of at least one of them for December 11th, a Thursday night home game against the Cavaliers. Here’s their schedule until then: Brooklyn, Golden State, Utah, New York, at New Orleans, at Philadelphia, at Detroit, Milwaukee. Actually, let’s make this a nice round number, and add the Cleveland game and a game at Minnesota. If they go 2-8 or 3-7 (roughly equivalent to their current winning percentage of .231) in that stretch, here’s what their road to the playoffs might look like:
First, let’s start with the cut-off for a Western Conference playoff berth. Last year it was 49 wins. The ninth place team (Phoenix) had 48 wins. If that number holds true for this season, starting today, the Thunder need to go 46-23 the rest of the way. That’s a winning percentage of .666, which translates to a 54 or 55-win season over 82 games. That is what they have to do to reach 49 wins.
However, let’s be nice and drop that qualifying number down to, say, 46 wins, which is the average number of wins (46.2, to be exact) the Western Conference eighth seed has had in the last ten 82-game seasons. To get to 46-36, the Thunder would need to go 43-26 — a 51-win pace over 82 games. That would qualify as their worst season since 2009-10, when they won 50 games (note: they were an eighth seed with 50 wins that year).
So, what if the Thunder just go .500 over their next ten games? At 8-15 overall, they’d need to pull off a 41-18 record to reach 49 wins. That pushes their pace to essentially a 57-win season, which they’ve accomplished the last two seasons. To hit the arbitrary 46-win average, life gets a little easier with a 52-win pace. You can see where this is headed, though. Let’s revisit their current winning percentage and project that onto the next ten games. Again, for the sake of generosity (and the fact they get to play the Sixers), let’s give them three wins.
I hope you’re sitting down: a 6-17 record is practically a death sentence. They would have to go 43-16 to reach 49 wins. That translates to a 60-win season. Bump it down to 46, and they’d still need to keep pace with a 56-win season.
Now, you’re probably thinking “what about the division crown?” Right, if the Thunder win the still inappropriately-named “Northwest” Division — as they have the last four seasons — they get an automatic playoff berth. Hate to break it to you, but unless Portland totally falls apart, they’re not winning less than 50 games this season. In fact, since re-alignment, the Western Conference has only had one division winner with less than 51 wins. That was the Utah Jazz in the turdfest that was the 2005-06 Northwest Division. The Blazers aren’t going to become Team #2.
The other factors to consider don’t even concern outright wins and losses. All of the above projections are based on the notion that Durant and/or Westbrook will come back firing on all cylinders, and clicking with the team as if they’d been playing together all along. While wildly talented, even super-duper stars (and the team as a whole) need an adjustment period. Also, remember how we said their schedule was favorable for the first month and a half of the season? Well, the rest of the season is heavy on intra-conference opponents, which will make life that much more difficult.
Ultimately, the road ahead isn’t impossible, but it’s really, really daunting.
Oh, and by the way, I’m sure I just jinxed this whole thing. You don’t spend a 1,100 words on how a team with Durant and Westbrook on it isn’t going to make the playoffs and not be punished for it in some way. This ends in one of two ways: 1) Durant and Westbrook come back, the Thunder morph into the ’96 Bulls, and they Fo’ Fo’ Fo’ their way to the title, or 2) the Thunder miss the playoffs, get horrible lottery odds, luck into the #1 pick, and select some game-changing big man, and win it all next year. I just know it.
[Photo via USA Today]
