Welcome to part 2 of our 2011 Oscar Breakdown. Yesterday I declared that Colin Firth will take home the Oscar for best actor in a leading role. Today, we talk best actress. Here are the nominees:

–          Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

–          Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

–          Annette Bening (The Kids Are All right)

–          Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

–          Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

And the winner is…Natalie Portman. Maybe. Watch out for Annette Bening. Yes, seriously. There is a strong push for her right now and she is well liked. She’s long overdue for an Oscar and has been nominated a few times before. And don’t forget that she won at the Golden Globes for her performance (she wasn’t up against Portman as they were in different categories). Natalie Portman will most likely still win but she did have that weird acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. That shit can come back to haunt you. She’s also young and has plenty of time. Assuming she does win, I really hope that she doesn’t start going on about her creepy dancer fiancée. Cause that whole thing is weird. For real yo. As for the others…well Nicole Kidman is boring and her face will probably be frozen so she’s out. Michelle Williams was really good in Blue Valentine but it was a tough movie to watch. The Academy doesn’t always love awarding performances that are too dark. It was an excellent film but quite harsh and very real. Jennifer Lawrence was good as well but Winter’s Bone (not a porn) is probably too obscure for the Academy. There are rumors swirling that there will be an upset on Sunday. I don’t see it coming in this category but it would be fun to see Annette get up there and talk about how she tamed the bad boy (being married to Warren Beatty and all) of Hollywood. Ok, she wouldn’t do that but it would be awesome if she did.

Fun fact: All signs point to Warren Beatty when it comes to Carly Simon’s song “You’re So Vain”.