The NFL playoff picture is becoming clearer as we enter December of the 2024 season. And with that, we also have a pretty good idea of who the realistic Super Bowl LIX championship contenders are.
There are eight NFL teams that DraftKings Sportsbook currently gives a 25/1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl and that the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives at least a 3% chance to win the title.
Using that criteria, let’s rank the Super Bowl LIX title contenders entering Week 14.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +2500
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 3.6%
FPI Ranking: 9th
Total DVOA Ranking: 14th
Russell Wilson has provided a sizable boost to the Pittsburgh offense. The excellent coaching from Mike Tomlin to go with a great defense usually keeps the Steelers in the mix, but their offense is now showing a necessary upside to potentially make a run in January.
7. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1800
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 5.0%
FPI Ranking: 7th
Total DVOA Ranking: 6th
The Vikings are as well-coached as any team in the NFL. Kevin O’Connell is an excellent head coach and offensive schemer, and Brian Flores brings the heat with creative blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the league.
6. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1400
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.1%
FPI Ranking: 4th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
The Packers are a balanced team, with the buzzsaw offense particularly standing out. Head coach Matt LaFleur even made the Green Bay offense look dynamic with Malik Willis at quarterback.
Green Bay has a huge test on Thursday Night Football against the Lions in Detroit. With a win, the Packers would even keep the chances open to steal the NFC North crown.
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1200
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 9.3%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
We know the Ravens can score with anyone, led by NFL MVP candidate Lamar Jackson. But will their defense be consistent enough to run the postseason gauntlet?
4. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 9.9%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 12th
The Chiefs feel more vulnerable than ever in the Mahomes-Reid era, and they narrowly got by the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers over the past two weeks.
But we’re still talking about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs here. And even if the eye test hasn’t looked great, the Chiefs are still 11-1, with their only loss coming at the Buffalo Bills. Right now, the AFC path to the Super Bowl would go through Kansas City.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 10.9%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
If the Super Bowl were this week, I’d be tempted to pick the Eagles to beat anyone. This team keeps looking better and better, with the ability to dominate teams both offensively and defensively. Finding a way to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and having the road go through Philadelphia instead of Detroit would be big for the Eagles.
2. Buffalo Bills (10-2)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +475
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 15.9%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 3rd
Is this finally the time Josh Allen and the Bills make the leap and find a way past Mahomes and the Chiefs? The 30-21 win over Kansas City in 11 is certainly a great sign.
Allen is currently the clear betting favorite (-225 on DraftKings) to be the NFL MVP.
1. Detroit Lions (11-1)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +300
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 23.7%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
The Lions are the team to beat this season until they show they’re not. Their +181 point differential is easily No. 1 in the NFL (the Bills are next at +131).
Detroit has the chance to make more statements with home games against the Packers and the Bills over the next two weeks.
