There are eight NFL teams in which DraftKings Sportsbook currently gives a 25/1 or better chance to win the Super Bowl, and the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives at least a 5% chance to win the title.
Using that criteria, let’s rank the Super Bowl LIX title contenders entering the NFL Playoffs.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7; Previously: NR)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +2500
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 5.3%
FPI Ranking: 7th
Total DVOA Ranking: 11th
Playoff Seed: No. 3 in NFC
Tampa Bay is an intriguing sleeper.
The Buccaneers get to host a playoff game against the Washington Commanders in the NFL Wild-Card Round and are currently 3-point favorites.
And while a 10-7 record may not stand out, Tampa Bay has impressive wins over four playoff teams: the Commanders, the Detroit Lions (on the road), the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Los Angeles Chargers (on the road).
The Bucs’ offense — coordinated by head-coaching candidate Liam Coen — has plenty of firepower and is capable of putting up huge numbers vs anybody. Tampa Bay finished fourth in the NFL in points scored and third in total yards on offense.
7. Green Bay Packers (11-6; Previously: 7th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +2000
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.2%
FPI Ranking: 3rd
Total DVOA Ranking: 3rd
Playoff Seed: No. 7 in NFC
Green Bay has two major concerns entering the playoffs:
1. It’s an extremely difficult path to the Super Bowl, and even to get out of the first round. The Packers travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the NFC Wild-Card Round and are currently 4.5-point underdogs.
2. The health and effectiveness of quarterback Jordan Love are in question after he left Green Bay’s Week 18 loss to the Chicago Bears with an injury to his throwing arm.
6. Minnesota Vikings (14-3: Previously: 6th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +1600
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 7.7%
FPI Ranking: 8th
Total DVOA Ranking: 7th
Playoff Seed: No. 5 in NFC
The Vikings’ Super Bowl chances took a huge hit with their loss to the Detroit Lions in the NFL’s regular-season finale.
Rather than getting a first-round bye and having the NFC road to the Super Bowl go through Minnesota, the Vikings dropped to the No. 5 seed and now have to play a road game at the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild-Card Round.
And it wasn’t just a loss; it was a 31-9 beatdown in a crucial game. Detroit’s defense had quarterback Sam Darnold confused all game, and you can be sure the Rams are studying what Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn did to force the disruption.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3; Previously: 5th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +700
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 8.4%
FPI Ranking: 5th
Total DVOA Ranking: 5th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in NFC
As of Tuesday, quarterback Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol.
With Hurts, the Eagles are as dangerous as any team in football. Without him, it would be Kenny Pickett starting, and winning any playoff game would be a challenge.
4. Baltimore Ravens (12-5; Previously: 4th)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +600
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 13.8%
FPI Ranking: 2nd
Total DVOA Ranking: 1st
Playoff Seed: No. 3 in AFC
After starting the season 0-2, the Ravens finished with a 12-5 record and won each of their last four games by at least 17 points.
Lamar Jackson finished the season with 41 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, and a league-best 119.6 passer rating, while adding 915 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Baltimore is currently a 9.5-point favorite over the Steelers in the Wild-Card Round.
3. Buffalo Bills (13-4; Previously: 2nd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +650
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 11.5%
FPI Ranking: 4th
Total DVOA Ranking: 4th
Playoff Seed: No. 2 in AFC
The pressure is on the Bills to finally make the leap and get to the Super Bowl.
Josh Allen exits the regular season as the runaway NFL MVP favorite (-450).
Buffalo gets a favorable first-round matchup, hosting rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. The Bills are currently an 8.5-point favorite.
2. Detroit Lions (15-2; Previously: 3rd)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +280
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 25.8%
FPI Ranking: 1st
Total DVOA Ranking: 2nd
Playoff Seed: No. 1 in NFC
Detroit has responded tremendously well to injuries and has secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Lions’ primetime performances at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 and vs the Vikings in Week 18 were highly impressive.
This team is well-coached in all phases.
The Lions led the NFL in points per game (33.2) and point differential (+222), each by a wide margin.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2; Previously: 1st)
Super Bowl title odds per DraftKings: +350
Super Bowl title odds per FPI: 12.3%
FPI Ranking: 6th
Total DVOA Ranking: 8th
Playoff Seed: No. 1 in AFC
The eye test and data this season would certainly argue against the Chiefs being placed here.
But we’re talking about the two-time defending champions, who also locked up the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. And now the AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City.
It’s the Chiefs until proven otherwise.
