Thursday night summarized the 2024 NFL season so far for the Cincinnati Bengals. Exciting game, Joe Burrow (428 passing yards, 4 touchdowns) and Ja’Marr Chase (11 receptions, 264 yards, 3 touchdowns) doing incredible things… and another loss.
Cincinnati fell to 4-6 with its 35-34 heartbreaking road loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
The Bengals are a team that can hang with the NFL’s best (as shown twice vs the Ravens and in Week 2 vs the Kansas City Chiefs), but there gets to be a point where the math is the math. Six losses through 10 games really makes things tough.
In 2023, for example, it took a 10-7 record (Pittsburgh Steelers) to secure the seventh and final AFC playoff slot. Cincinnati was the first team out at 9-8. So, the Bengals are well aware of what might be required to get into the tournament.
At 4-6, do the Bengals still have a realistic chance to reach the playoffs?
Let’s take a look at the current AFC playoff picture, the Bengals’ remaining schedule, and what the probabilities suggest.
The AFC North and Wild Card outlook
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2; .750)
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3; .700)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6; .400)
4. Cleveland Browns (2-7; .222)
In the AFC North, things particularly look bleak for the Bengals. The big thing here is that they’re three games behind the Ravens, while Baltimore officially holds the tiebreaker after sweeping the head-to-head matchups. They still get two head-to-head opportunities vs the Steelers, but having to make up essentially four games over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens feels like an extreme longshot through 10 weeks of the season.
AFC playoff picture
Looking at the AFC playoff picture through, well, a picture (via ESPN).
The Bengals are currently ninth in the AFC, 1.5 games back of the No. 7 Wild Card seed. The Los Angeles Chargers are currently the No. 6 seed at 5-3, while the Denver Broncos are the No. 7 seed at 5-4. The Indianapolis Colts are the first team out heading into the rest of Week 10 action at 4-5, and the New York Jets are behind the Bengals at 3-6. Six AFC teams have two wins.
Compare that to the NFC, where 6-3 would currently be the No. 7 seed and there are 12 teams with at least four wins.
So, the Bengals are fortunate that the AFC Wild Card picture looks pretty weak, especially in terms of the No. 7 slot. The 7-seed chances could also be more favorable for Cincinnati by the end of the week: the Broncos face the Chiefs in Kansas City and the Colts host the Buffalo Bills.
The schedule
Week 11: at Los Angeles Chargers (SNF)
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) odds of a Bengals win: 46.7%
Every game is huge for the Bengals the rest of the way, but this one feels like it has the potential to make or break their season.
It could be the most difficult game remaining on their schedule, but it’s also a very winnable one- if Trey Hendrickson (an NFL-leading 11 sacks) and the Cincinnati defense can limit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles offense. The Bengals’ defense has been far too inconsistent and needs to show up better the rest of the way. Burrow, Chase, and the Cincinnati offense will usually give the team a chance vs any opponent in any environment, but the defense has to hold up enough.
A win here would also give the Bengals the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers, so there would be extra value in the victory.
Week 13: vs Pittsburgh Steelers
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 50.0%
A true coin-flip on paper at the moment. This should be viewed as a must-win for the Bengals at home and coming off a bye in Week 12.
The first of two games vs the Steelers.
Week 14: at Dallas Cowboys (MNF)
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 55.8%
The Bengals’ odds of winning this game could be higher in reality with the health status of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in question. Prescott is dealing with what appears to be a serious hamstring injury and is expected to be placed on Injured Reserve, which would force him to miss at least four weeks; his earliest potential return being this game. With the Cowboys at 3-5 and likely to fall out of the playoff picture with Cooper Rush at quarterback, there will be no sense in Dallas rushing Prescott back for this Week 14 matchup if he’s not completely healthy.
Week 15: at Tennessee Titans
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 59.4%
If the Bengals can’t beat this Titans team in a must-win game, they don’t deserve to make the postseason.
Week 16: vs Cleveland Browns (TNF)
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 55.7%
Another must-win. Home at primetime vs a Browns team that currently has two wins.
Week 17: vs Denver Broncos
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 63.8%
This would be an enormous opportunity for the Bengals at the moment. They can gain a game on the Broncos and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker. The FPI isn’t buying the 5-4 Broncos, ranking them 27th (DVOA is a bit kinder, ranking the Broncos 16th).
Week 18: at Pittsburgh Steelers
FPI odds of a Bengals win: 43.1%
On paper, this is one of the two most difficult games left on the Bengals’ schedule, and the FPI thinks it will be the hardest.
But, it’s so hard to know what a Week 18 game will look like. How much will the game matter to the Steelers, and will they be resting any starters? We have no idea.
If there are playoff ramifications for both sides, it will be a high-quality AFC North battle to finish out the regular season.
Playoff odds
AFC North title odds (FPI): 3.0%
AFC playoff odds (FPI): 37.0%
The verdict
While the Bengals have made things very difficult on themselves at 4-6, they’re still very much alive in the AFC playoff picture. And, in reality, they may be the best team in contention for the No. 7 seed (maybe even the No. 6 seed, but we’ll have to see how they look vs the Chargers in Week 11).
There’s very little room left for error, but it’s also possible that a 9-8 team wins a Wild Card slot this season in the AFC. Beating the Chargers, Steelers (twice), and Broncos would be particularly big wins for the Bengals by adding a loss to the opponent’s record while securing head-to-head tiebreakers.
If the Bengals find a way into the playoffs, they’re a dangerous team capable of knocking off any opponent. But they need to turn it on soon and stack wins.
