Yes, the NFL season is young so there are plenty of statistical outliers. Yes, Tom Brady is playing behind an offensive line which is struggling mightily to protect him. Yes, Rob Gronkowski looks about a step slower than he has in seasons past and Julian Edelman may be the only Patriots wide receiver that gets consistently open.
Still.
Looking at where Tom Brady measures up statistically compared to the rest of the NFL after four weeks of action is depressing/hilarious depending on how one feels about the Patriots.
For instance, Brady’s passer rating is currently sitting at 79.1. If the season ended today, that mark would stand as the worst of his career as a starting quarterback. That score is best for 29th in the league, just ahead of Derek Carr and just behind the recently benched E.J. Manuel. Tom Brady is being statistically outperformed by a guy who was just benched for Kyle Orton.
Perhaps even more alarming is Brady’s yards per pass attempt. Brady is currently averaging 5.77 yards per attempt. And while Brady’s never been a deep ball specialist (outside of those glorious Randy Moss years), he’s never been this ineffective when throwing either. To put that number into perspective, Brady ranks 33rd out of all NFL quarterbacks by that stat. He barely beats Derek Carr (5.52) and he’s beaten out by such quarterbacks as Ryan Tannehill (5.82), Mike Glennon (6.41) and Alex Smith (6.96).
Making matters bleaker is Brady’s completion percentage. If there’s a long term trend which could be used as evidence of a Brady decline, it’s this one. His current completion percentage of 59.1% is the worst of his career but it’s a pattern, not a sudden decline.
In 2011, Brady’s completion percentage was 65.6%. In 2012, it was 63%. In 2013, it dipped to a career low 60.5%. So, his current completion percentage of 59.1% isn’t that far off from where he ended last season.
That 59.1% completion percentage? Good enough for 27th in the league this year. Brady is just ahead of E.J. Manuel (58%) but he’s behind esteemed quarterbacks like Geno Smith (60.3%), Kirk Cousins (62.3%) and Brian Hoyer (64.2%).
All of this tells us that Brady and the Patriots offense have been pretty bad this year. How much of that is on Brady though? It’s hard to say because it’s difficult to envision any quarterback having success with the personnel that Brady has working with him right now. His number one wide receiver is a converted college quarterback who was the team’s fourth wideout two seasons ago. His number one passing option is lumbering around like he has a refrigerator strapped to his back. His offensive line has regressed so horribly that Bill Belichick should be standing in front of Dante Scarnecchia’s house holding a boombox above his head right now.
However, looking at the last four years of Brady’s career also reveals that Brady has been statistically declining for awhile. Is Tom done? No. Is he not the same quarterback he was back in 2010? It’s hard to argue otherwise.
[Pro Football Reference][ESPN]
