Contenders NBA Title Chances

A year ago I wrote a short piece about “the most wide open NBA playoffs in a long time.”  I gave five teams virtually identical chances to win the title.  Amazingly the team I thought was 6th best, Dallas, ended up taking home the trophy. This year for the vast majority of the season it looked like only three teams (Heat, Bulls, Thunder) had a shot to win it all.  But with the playoffs looming, it’s becoming less and less clear who the favorites are.  Miami has lost just about every big road game they’ve played all season.  Chicago has the best record in the East, but their reigning MVP isn’t healthy.  San Antonio, not Oklahoma City, is the top seed in the West at the moment.  It wouldn’t shock me to see the Lakers still manage to put a championship run together.  And watching Paul Pierce put up 43 points against the Knicks made me even more convinced that Boston could still get it done. So here is the list of what I believe each team’s odds are (by percentage) to win the 2012 NBA Title:

Thunder: 23%
Heat: 22%
Bulls: 16%
Spurs: 16%
Celtics: 9%
Lakers: 8%
Clippers: 1%
Pacers: 1%
Mavs: 1%
Knicks: 1%
Grizzlies: 1%
Everyone else combined: 1%

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