Regression to the Mean in the NFL

I know this post is going to ruffle some feathers at Cosby Sweaters, but hey, you can’t live in fear, right?  I gotta stand by what I believe.

This is true of all sports (baseball in particular), but because the NFL is starting up now I’m using that as an example.  Just because a player had a great season last year, that doesn’t mean he will again this year.  It’s more likely that a random player X will put up numbers similar to his other previous seasons, rather than his one outstanding season.  DeAngelo Williams is a good example.  In 2008 he came out of nowhere with a ridiculous break out season, and the following year he went near the top of everybody’s fantasy drafts.  He was fairly disappointing in ’09, then last year he flat out stunk.

I know I have said before that pre-season games are meaningless, but Michael Vick was bad the other night.  I mean really bad.  And even though I don’t think you can read much into that, I do think it’s a good bet that in 2011 he’ll more likely resemble the Mike Vick of old than the guy who was an MVP candidate last year.  It’s a little something called “regression to the mean.”  The second Philly signed Vince Young I told an Eagles fan friend of mine that I bet at some point he starts instead of Vick, and I’m sticking to that.

Some other guys I’m very suspicious of this year are Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, and Brandon Lloyd.

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