According to simulations, the New England Patriots had very little chance of winning the Super Bowl when there was 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.

It was at this time that Tom Brady and his team were down 24-14 and facing 3rd and 14 from their 28-yard line. Brady and Julian Edelman proceeded to connect on a massive 21-yard catch that greatly increased New England’s chances for another title. The moment before the 3rd down conversion, the Patriots had a 3.3 percent chance of winning the game. ran 50,000 simulations following 2nd down and came up with this minuscule number.

Remember, the Packers had a 99.7 percent chance of emerging victorious following Morgan Burnett’s late interception in the NFC title game. Whoops.

Here is how the service projected the outcome at various times throughout the game (via Business Insider):

Super Bowl Chart


[Business Insider]